Between the Lines: Scotland, the Union, and IndyRef2




What are the chances of a second independence referendum in Scotland and what will that mean? How does the UK government intend to counteract sustained support for independence? James Harrett looks at the issues.

Recent polls showing sustained support for Scottish independence, in the wake of Covid-19 and Brexit, are worrying for the future of the union. However, the British government has its levers and its solutions to this problem. The precedent set by the 2014 referendum was that if the ruling pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) was to win a majority in Holyrood (the Scottish Parliament), there would be an agreement between the two governments of a referendum. As Holyrood is elected via proportional representation, this will give ground for the SNP to implement their referendum plans. In fact, the SNP's Commons Leader Ian Blackford promised a referendum if the SNP won a Holyrood majority.

So, how can the government counteract this issue? One thing the British government is banking on is the borrowing powers and the comprehensive plan by HM Treasury to boost the economy. The government's new fiscal policy, which like that of many other G7 economies is to stimulate the economy as the summer wears on, is intended to show Scottish businesses how the British government can have an effect on Scots' lives, and that 'going at it alone' per se may not be the best idea.

This pattern has further played out after Steve Barclay, the Treasury's Chief Secretary, announced an extra £1.9bn, a statistic disputed by the SNP government, as they claim the majority of this is reflective of the SNP government's share of PPE. Requests by the Scottish government for more flexible borrowing powers were rejected - a clear indicator that HM Treasury and the British government are committed to a stronger union.

Moreover, within the SNP, there was already a growing sentiment against the SNP Leader, Nicola Sturgeon, over her handling of the Brexit process, and her apparently 'soft' approach. Before the pandemic, there were already murmurs of a clear challenge to her at Holyrood, coming in the form of the Edinburgh Central SNP nomination contest, between two SNP heavyweights: Angus Robertson, the Ex-MP and the SNP's former Commons Leader, and Joanna Cherry, the MP for that same constituency in the Commons. Robertson is a noted Sturgeon ally while Cherry was a noted ally of Sturgeon's predecessor, Alex Salmond. 

This all makes it clear that, with or without the pandemic, sustained support for Scottish independence doesn't mean it'll happen soon, and there are signs the push is quickly fracturing.

James Harrett is Political Analyst for the Harbour Express.


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